Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 29.145188 32.380180 36.072544 40.657438 46.283853 53.083914 62.123066
2025-06-29 24.118227 28.084354 33.000041 39.733258 49.059657 62.134083 83.206180
2025-07-06 21.922953 26.547356 32.700415 41.927600 56.364400 80.277669 129.967292
2025-07-13 19.554519 24.292788 30.904652 41.477985 59.636456 94.305812 187.639696
2025-07-20 17.965380 22.806783 29.845859 41.774034 64.177347 113.918384 301.732483
2025-07-27 16.736493 21.633994 29.007498 42.158577 69.020452 138.809746 558.429722
2025-08-03 15.644964 20.512590 28.048219 42.068506 72.877089 166.074026 1257.564792
2025-08-10 14.640444 19.405221 26.942299 41.443835 75.306203 193.109500 4463.415591
2025-08-17 13.908235 18.639723 26.291885 41.544810 79.625457 236.836443 NaN
2025-08-24 13.212937 17.865041 25.524532 41.244106 82.816042 285.327888 NaN
2025-08-31 12.563332 17.108274 24.700932 40.664724 85.024841 338.401072 NaN
2025-09-07 12.003416 16.453887 23.990019 40.201616 87.485450 409.153212 NaN
2025-09-14 11.512526 15.885826 23.393327 39.927574 90.701240 517.979881 NaN
2025-09-21 10.981799 15.217761 22.553741 38.959650 91.110698 607.547948 NaN
2025-09-28 10.854926 15.218204 22.961392 41.045886 104.742597 1292.296412 NaN
2025-10-05 10.458013 14.730369 22.387386 40.593980 107.643132 1962.898102 NaN
2025-10-12 10.169057 14.411174 22.113387 40.871079 114.348684 4746.002376 NaN
2025-10-19 9.910743 14.129236 21.887035 41.237792 122.087310 46761.313356 NaN
2025-10-26 9.629114 13.789935 21.516447 41.148883 127.541042 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.321859 13.389454 20.991251 40.545408 129.701138 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.095900 13.123261 20.722968 40.642343 136.695919 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 8.852501 12.813823 20.342204 40.352042 141.090975 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 8.602681 12.481839 19.892436 39.792897 143.301288 NaN NaN